Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
