A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
